Open-pit coal industry (002128): Coal, electricity, aluminum integration layout has solid performance and high dividends

Open-pit coal industry (002128): Coal, electricity, aluminum integration layout has solid performance and high dividends
Net profit in the first half of the year13.7.5 billion, an increase of nearly 12% in ten years.In the first half of the year, the company realized operating income / net profit attributable to its parent of 95.33/13.750,000 yuan, ten years +7.41% / 11.75%, of which Huo Coal Hongjun contributed about 0 to its mother’s net profit.5.2 billion (1.02 ppm * 51%).Q2 net profit attributable to mother in a single quarter 5.7.6 billion, -27 MoM.8%, we believe that it is mainly due to the increase in stripping in the second quarter due to production arrangements, which caused cost increases. Operating data: The price of coal and electricity rose, and the gross profit margin decreased slightly year by year.Coal production / sales in the first half of the year 2452/2463, one year -2.03% /-1.93%, the average selling price of 141 yuan / ton, + 16% per year, the cost of 70 yuan / ton of coal, multiple + 24%.Gross margin of coal business is 50.39% every year -3.07 points.Actual power generation / sales in the first half of the year (including photovoltaic and wind power) 30.97/27.1.1 billion kWh, +6 in ten years.17% / + 2.56%.The average electricity price is 329 yuan / MWh, + 19% per year, and the cost of kWh is 192 yuan / MWh, + 23% per year.Power business gross margin 41.6% a year -1.87 points. The electrolytic aluminum injection is completed, and performance growth can be expected.On May 17, 2019, the company completed the transfer of 51% equity of Huomei Hongjun.Huomei Hongjun completed the production / sales of electrolytic aluminum in the first half of the year43.73/43.06 for the first time, at least +2.16% / + 4.2%, the average sales price of 11642 yuan / ton, -0 years.4%, the unit cost of 10,556 yuan / ton, multiple +1.8%.Gross margin of electrolytic aluminum business 9.33%, -2 pct per year, net profit per ton of aluminum is about 233 yuan / ton.We believe that the company has completed the integrated development of coal, electricity and aluminum. The synergy effect of the industrial chain can be expected, and the cost-side competitive advantage is obvious. At the same time, the electrolytic aluminum industry is currently at the bottom. Initially (86 production forecast, 35 cases under construction), with the increase of existing capacity, for every 100 yuan increase in aluminum price, the net profit contributed by the mother can increase by about 0.3.3 billion. According to the company’s current annual performance and aluminum price growth, each 1% increase in aluminum price can drive the company’s performance growth by nearly 1.5%. The coal business is stable, with an interim yield of nearly 5%.The company announced in March that it will increase its 19-year coal content against the market trend and expects a net increase of approximately 2%.2.5 billion.Because the company’s weight reduction after the increase is still different from the market price, fluctuations in the market’s coal price have a small impact on the company’s performance, and the profitability of the coal business is stable (see the announcement on March 13 that the integration 无锡夜网 is expected).The company announced in the first half of the year that it plans to distribute cash dividends7.690,000 yuan, accounting for 56% of net profit attributable to mothers in the first half of the year. Based on daily calculations on August 26, the dividend yield reached 4.8%. Profit forecast and estimation.Due to the completion of the company’s electrolytic aluminum injection, comprehensive consideration, we give the company 19?The 21-year EPS is 1.28/1.33/1.35, with reference to comparable coal and electrolytic aluminum company, given the company 9 years?10xPE, corresponding to the reasonable value interval 11.55?12.83 yuan, maintaining the “preliminary market” rating. risk warning.Environmental productivity is not easy to grasp; downstream demand has greatly exceeded expectations.